The Next Two Weeks in Weather

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The models below show precipitation anomalies from April – September. The models are biased dry for now, because of the larger scale patterns that are influencing them. I.E. we have a cold Pacific and a very sleepy MJO that is reluctant to cycle through the different phases…the models see that, and are keeping things as they are. Persistence forecasting if you will… Does that mean there won’t be storms? No, absolutely not…there will be storms, and some areas may get lucky and be ok. However, other areas are likely going to struggle until the main forcing patterns change. We are also in the time of year when the longer range models struggle a bit, due to the seasonal change. That should even out in the next month or two…
NMME Model Precipitation Forecast
 

 
EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Forecast
 
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