Market Report - February 10, 2023

Ross Bronson, Ag Risk Consultant, Redd Summit Advisors

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Cattle Market Report

‍The cattle markets, fed cattle in particular, seem to be finally finding their momentum. Now that a lot of the cattle have worked their way through slaughter, and we are starting to feel the lower inventory numbers of calves available we should be seeing less volatility in the market. There still may be some as packers buy up inventory and then sit on it for a time to avoid future higher prices. I didn’t anticipate a strong upward trend this early. 

The feeder cattle market hasn’t seen quite the same aggressive upward climb the last few weeks. I anticipate a lag here, but it is coming. A lot of producers sold early, and there is often a seasonally low inventory in the spring. By fall we should be seeing strong prices.

Boxed beef is still strong, and it remains to be seen what consumers will do with their protein dollars. Grilling season is coming quickly though, so I anticipate spending of beef staying stable through to fall. It seems like there hasn’t been as strong of a change here as most thought we would see last fall. 

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Grain Market Report

Corn is up recently, but only after a mostly sideways trend the last week or two. We are still seeing favorable forecasts which indicate that corn prices should lower later this year. Brazil and other South American countries still look to be having a good year which will increase global inventory. Soybeans are up though they have also moved sideways lately. They did make up the drop the first of the month and then some. The anticipation of China opening back up is going to keep bean strong I would think. 

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Sheep Market Report

Hamilton was higher this week, but Fredericksburg was steady. San Angelo came in steady to $10 lower. Goldthwaite was fighting weather, and New Holland was steady to strong. The USDA estimated domestic lamb and mutton meat production for the week ending February 4th totaled 2.18 million pounds on a 34,000 head slaughter this week compared to 2.08 million pounds and 33,000 head the previous week. Imported lamb and mutton meat for the week ending January 28 totaled 5.9 million pounds which is 284 percent of the domestic production for the same period.

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Hay Market Report

While exporters seem to still have inventory to move, dairies have woken up a little bit and have shown more interest in buying. The export situation is not surprising as exports were down by 8% for December over last year. A lot of the warmer climates have had good conditions for new crops the last few weeks. There is optimism from the cattle industry that inputs like hay and grains will be lower this year as a lot of the country seems to be enjoying strong precipitation compared to the last few years.