Market Report - Week of October 6, 2023

Cattle Market Report:‍

Markets are down the last two weeks for both feeder cattle and live cattle. Some of what I have read seems pessimistic, indicating that this is the long-awaited correction. While I agree that this is certainly a correction, my opinion is a bit more optimistic. I think what we are seeing is a combination of a correction and a seasonal shift at the same time. We saw a strong increase in the markets through the first part of September. Live cattle futures, in particular, are still above what they were at the beginning of September. Markets routinely decline around October. The 10-year index shows an average decline of $3-$4/cwt from September 1 through October 13 for 550 and 650 weights respectively. All of this is just to say that I don’t feel overly concerned about the larger picture as it pertains to cattle prices. 

I had the opportunity to attend the King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management’s annual symposium the last few days. Dr. Darrell Peel from Oklahoma State shared with us his outlook for the cattle markets over the next few years. He did so by supporting what he said with data around the number of cull cows still being marketed and slaughtered, the number of heifers on feed and being slaughtered, and the overall number of livestock. We are certainly not even approaching expansion phase. Prices are expected to remain elevated for next year, and likely into the next. As producers start retaining more and more heifers the prices for cattle will be driven up even more as they are currently a large percentage of cattle on feed. Barring any outside influences (looking at you Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas) we should continue to enjoy strong prices. Hopefully, we can manage our inputs in a way that allows us the harness higher profits.‍

Grain Market Report:‍

We are seeing water level issues in the Mississippi again this year and have been for a while. The inability to move commodities up and down efficiently is creating higher freight prices. Soybean harvest has been higher than expected and soybeans are down over the last two weeks. There is also lower interest from exporters which keeps inventory up. On the flip side, corn is up but only slightly over the two weeks. Eyes are still on the South American crop and what our domestic yields are going to do.    

Cattle and Grain Markets for October 6, 2023‍

Sheep Market Report:‍

San Angelo was up $10 this week. Hamilton was $5-$10 higher along with Goldthwaite. Fredericksburg was steady and New Holland was steady to weak. Billings was $5-$12 higher on light lambs. The USDA estimated domestic lamb and mutton meat production for the week ending September 30th totaled 1.98 million pounds on a 33,000 head slaughter this week compared to 1.88 million pounds on a 32,000 pound slaughter the week before. Imported lamb and mutton meat for the week ending September 23rd totaled 4.39 million pounds.

Sheep markets for week ending October 6, 2023

*No Quote ** Not Applicable

‍Hay Market Report:‍

Markets across the board are pretty quiet with demand and trade low. USDA reports that trade seems almost non-existent as many people are still feeding older hay. That is understandable as this time of year many growers are finishing up harvest and many livestock producers are busy as well. ‍

*Ross Bronson and Redd Summit Advisors are not financial advisors, and this market report is in no way intended to provide financial advice. This commentary is merely meant to be insight and input about current market conditions. It is recommended that any market commentary be compared to your own trusted sources, experience, and market evaluation. Especially those that are more specific to your regional market dynamics. 

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